AVIC Aircraft (000768) incident review: Boeing crash highlights safety considerations of large domestic aircraft
Event: On March 13th, the United States and Canada announced the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft. So far, all countries with Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft have been grounded. This number has been grounded in more than 50 countries and regions.China is the first country in the world to issue a grounding order.
In addition to the impact of the Boeing crash on the company’s financial performance, the company has been reluctant to face the problem, insisting that it has full confidence in safety and is in a completely passive interaction, which has a significant impact on the company’s brand image.
Views: 1. The culprit of the crash or the Maneuverability Enhancement System (MCAS) exposed the intelligent avionics shortboard Egypt Air accident. The culprit is the MCAS system, which was the second accident in May.
As early as after the Lion Air crash in Indonesia, Boeing issued an announcement to the global 737 MAX input operator, warning that the 737 MAX series aircraft flight control system had an incorrect reading output problem, or it would cause the aircraft to dive and fall at a large angle.
Indonesian Lion Air’s investigation report also confirmed that the wrong angle of attack data triggered the MCAS to lower the nose, causing the plane to lose control.
The Chinese name of the MCAS system is the maneuverability enhancement system. The Boeing 737 MAX designed this MCAS system to increase the aircraft’s pitch control characteristics.
Three other models, the horsepower diameter of the 737 MAX engine, are installed more forward, and the peak height of the head when increasing thrust is also the size.
The MCAS can instruct the stabilizer to trim the aircraft toward the head of the aircraft when the high-slope turn increases certain factors and the speed of the flaps closes to the stall speed, thereby enhancing the aircraft’s pitch characteristics.
MCAS is only effective during manual flight with the flaps retracted and does not require pilot instructions.
This is why Boeing warned of a possible dive of the aircraft during manual flight after the Lion Air crash in Indonesia.
The crash of Egypt Air is highly similar to the Lion Air accident, and the problem is likely to lie in the MCAS stabilization system.
Intelligent avionics system is the future development direction. MCAS sounds the alarm for the development of avionics system.
With the development of science and technology, new technologies and functions of civil aviation have been continuously applied to aircraft systems. As a civil aircraft and its important airborne systems, intelligent avionics systems are known as the “brain” and “five features” of aircraft.In providing technical support for the implementation of intelligent aircraft, providing aircraft status and parameter display functions, providing aircraft data network functions, providing aircraft and external communication functions, providing aircraft with a safe, accurate and punctual guidance function along scheduled routes, and providing aircraft healthManagement functions, etc.
The latest generation of avionics systems uses calibration and standardized design methods to re-divide individual serial functions in airborne sensor equipment, which is equivalent to reorganizing the sensor’s front-end, signal processing, and data processing components into one that can achieveNew system for resource sharing and generalization.
By controlling these systems, the system software can achieve real-time performance and improve system detection and identification capabilities.
Intelligent avionics system is an important future development direction of airborne systems, but more careful design and testing are needed in the process of upgrading.
In the MCAS system of the Boeing 737 Max series, the angle-of-attack sensor detects the angle-of-attack machine head, but the software design does not consider the problem of sensor failure.
When the sensor signals are inconsistent, the system has no troubleshooting function, otherwise the nose cannot be pushed down using the most extreme data, causing the aircraft to enter a dead dive.
This simple and extensive system design eventually led to catastrophic consequences and also sounded the alarm for the development of avionics systems.
The C919 avionics system is the “strongest brain” today, with outstanding safety, economy and maintenance performance.
Boeing’s other rival, China’s C919, is lying on its back.
At the beginning of the design of the C919, the goal was to target the strongest: Boeing 737MAX and Airbus A320neo.
The C919, like the Boeing 737MAX and Airbus A320, also uses the LEAP-1 engine.
But unlike the Boeing 737MAX, the C919 was designed to work with CFM’s LEAP-1C engine to achieve an integrated engine suspension design, which can reduce drag by 2%.
At the same time, due to the latecomer advantage, the C919 is more advanced than the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 in the four most important elements: aerodynamic layout, airframe structure, power unit, and airborne system.
The avionics system equipped in the C919 is the “strongest brain” today, using the latest technology, that is, the avionics system based on exchange technology (AFDX). The system adopts an alternative and open design, which can be extended according to needs and performance.The core of the system is the integrated information system-IMA, which includes multiple general information processing modules, data acquisition modules, storage modules, etc., each information processing module has the same hardware / software, which can be completed by loading different applicationsFor different tasks, you must overcome strong information processing capabilities. The signals obtained by the front-end sensors can be directly passed to the IMA for processing. Due to the improved degree of system integration, the number of system equipment decreases with the improvement of functions, which is conducive to reducing structural weight and improving maintenance.performance.
Through the adoption of a series of advanced technologies, the C919 passenger aircraft avionics system has good performance, which can meet users’ requirements for aircraft safety, economy and maintenance, etc., thereby improving the competitiveness of the C919 passenger aircraft.
2. The nominal global grounding has had a huge impact on the company. Boeing is facing a crisis. Boeing 737MAX accounts for an increase in the company’s revenue. The two accidents have caused global safety concerns.
According to Boeing’s official website data, there are currently 4,636 outstanding Boeing 737 Max series orders. This year, Boeing estimates that this type of aircraft will have an annual revenue of about $ 30 billion and a monthly output of 57 aircraft.
China accounts for 20% of the Boeing 737 Max aircraft launch, while the latest 737 Max 8 represents a replacement for Boeing’s operating interests.
Although Boeing has continued to receive new orders after the Lion Air crash last year, it seems that no order losses have been caused; however, within six months, a major accident occurred on the same new aircraft, and the accident process was highly similar, leading toQuestioned the global safety of the 737 Max aircraft.
The suspension of delivery will cost $ 5 billion in two months, and Boeing faces a crisis.
Analysts at Wall Street investment bank Jefferies estimate that the full 737 series will generate $ 32 billion in revenue in 2019. This project will be the company’s largest single source of business, with Max 8 as the mainstay.
At the moment, the worst case is that the 737 Max8 completely stops manufacturing and delivery, so Boeing may lose about $ 5.1 billion in two months, accounting for about 5% of long-term revenue.
Prior to the crash in Indonesia, Lion Air cancelled orders and switched to Airbus.
According to CNN’s March 12 report, the company is already implementing a major plan. All 222 Boeing 737MAX8 aircraft ordered by the company will be cancelled all at once (a total value of $ 22 billion, and 11 have been delivered)., The remaining 211 will be canceled, 1 crashed, 10 may be returned), and plans to order Boeing’s main fuselage Airbus A321neo aircraft.
The two parties have not yet reached an agreement, but have agreed to anticipate the delivery time of four Boeing 737 MAX aircraft ordered by Lion Air.
The four aircraft were originally scheduled for delivery in May this year. Boeing could face billions of dollars in grounding budgets for air carriers.
The 737 MAX cabin layout is between 162 and 210 seats. If an airline has 10 MAXs, it will fly 4 segments per aircraft per day, with an average seat load of 70%, and a day of grounding will bring 5,000.Loss of capacity around two seats.
The grounding will result in flight cancellations, rebooking, and refunds, which will also cause certain economic losses.
According to Wall Street Melius Research and Jefferies, the cost of grounding all 737Max aircraft for three months is about $ 1 billion to $ 5 billion. If the accident is confirmed to be caused by a flaw in the design of the aircraft, Boeing may face a cost of billions of dollars.
On the 11th, China Eastern Airlines grounded all 737-8 commercial flights. According to reports, China Eastern Airlines and Boeing will discuss the losses caused by the planned grounding in the future.
On the 13th, Bjorn Shores, the founder and CEO of budget airline “Norwegian Airlines”, announced that Norwegian Airlines will request Boeing to compensate for the losses caused by grounding Boeing 737-8 aircraft.
According to a statement issued by Social through social media, the company ‘s newly purchased aircraft was forced to ground, “we will bear the compensation for the resulting losses,” and the aircraft manufacturer should pay for it.
3, crash warning development of domestically produced large aircraft is the only way, complete localization is the ultimate goal.
The aviation industry has huge technical barriers, and the success of the C919 is of great significance.
The development of the domestically produced large aircraft C919 is a prediction in the history of the development of the conventional aviation industry, and is of great significance for improving the conventional comprehensive national strength.
The domestic civil aircraft industry chain is incomplete, and many core technologies such as aero engines cannot be localized. The United States uses its position and technological advantages in the aviation industry chain to suppress the current development of large aircraft.
The success of C919 may break through the monopoly and blockade of foreign giants and win a broad market space. It is important that C919 also shoulders the important fields of technology such as systems engineering, aerodynamics, computational mathematics, and virtual reality technology in artificial intelligence.The advancement of Beidou ‘s satellite navigation technology has made China ‘s manufacturing mission to a higher level.
The 737Max series competitor C919 is on the rise and is expected to expand market share.
The 737 Max series is a mainline 上海夜网论坛 narrow-body passenger aircraft. The main competitors are not only the old rival Airbus A320neo series, but also the domestically produced large-scale aircraft C919 which has been rolled out for test flight is also its potential.
Boeing’s air crash may have a huge potential impact on orders, leading airlines to switch to the arms of C919 or A320.
Boeing democratically predicts that China will need 7,690 new aircraft over the next 20 years, worth one.
With USD 2 trillion, China is Boeing’s largest market, and Boeing’s fourth-generation 737MAX series is the most important model for developing countries in the future.
After the 737Max series was severely damaged, large domestically produced aircraft also successfully tested and the C919 tried to increase market share.
At present, the domesticization rate of domestically produced large aircraft C919 is about 60%, but in the future, C919 will eventually achieve 100% localization.
According to the China Youth Daily, there are two ways to localize the C919 aircraft in the future. One is to establish a joint venture in the country, and the other is to import the original products and then slowly realize the full domestic production.
With the increase of the localization ratio, the domestic large aircraft industry chain will be more perfect, and it will also benefit from the huge domestic market space of large aircraft.
4. Investment suggestions We expect the company’s main operating income for 2018-2020 to be 338, respectively.
45 billion, 390.
5.7 billion and 462.
5.0 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 5 respectively.
25 billion, 7.
02 billion and 9.
37 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 0.
19 yuan, 0.
25 yuan and 0.
34 yuan, corresponding to PE is 88 times, 66 times and 49 times respectively, maintaining the company’s “strongly recommended” level.
Risk warning: The development progress of large aircraft is less than expected, and the order and delivery of military aircraft is less than expected.